Where is the month and year going? It is already November and we will soon slide into December. Just amazing how fast time passes us by!
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Saturday night: An increase of clouds during the overnight hours - mild for November.
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Sunday: Becoming mostly cloudy - mild - windy at times. Boaters use care.
Highs: Mainly in the 65-70 range
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph and gusty - gusts above 40 mph possible
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Sunday night: Windy - A line of showers and thunderstorms moving into the area from west to east. A chance for lightning and thunder - gusty winds may accompany the front. Temperatures falling behind the cold front into the 30s. Rain may briefly change to light snow or snow pellets. No accumulation expected.
Wind: South winds at 10-25 mph becoming westerly at 10-20 mph - gusts above 40 mph possible
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-1.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Colder - cloudy in the morning - morning showers or snow flurries ending. Mostly sunny during the afternoon.
Highs: In the 44-48 degree rangeWind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% between 12 am and 5 am - then 20% during the morning hours after 5 am | Rainfall totals: additional rainfall after 5 am should be less than 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Monday night: Mostly clear and colder - patchy frost possible.
Lows: in the upper 20s and lower 30s
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday Mostly sunny - cool temperatures.
Highs: in the lower 50s
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
HEADLINES: November is zipping along and so is the weather. We have been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride in the temperature department. That appears as if it will continue into the coming weeks.
Warm air will continue on Sunday - ahead of an approaching cold front and storm system. Along with the warm air will come gusty southerly winds. Winds could be in the 20-40 mph range. Boaters use caution.
The cold front will approach our region on Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms. The line of showers and storms will push from west to east across our region. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" range - locally heavier totals will be possible (especially if the line moves slower than expected).
Can't 100% rule out a few reports of snow at the end of the system - no accumulation is expected. Novelty flakes if they fly.
Here is the storm that is approaching our region - look at all of that precipitation! The second image is the map for Sunday evening and Sunday night - as the front moves through.
Future-cast radar from wright-weather.com - this is the NAM Model - model of choice for this event. Looks like the rain and storms will be approaching our region between 8 or 9 pm and then continuing into the early morning hours.
Here is the high resolution WRF - around 9-11 pm on Sunday night - you can see the line of showers/storms knocking on our door.
Here is the severe weather outlook for Sunday into Sunday night - you can see the orange area where the risk for a few severe thunderstorms will exist. Our region is in the general thunderstorms - that means some lightning and thunder - severe weather is not expected to be a major concern.
It will be windy ahead and along the front on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night - don't be surprised to see some gusts in the 20-40+ mph range. Especially right ahead of the front.
Wind map from wright-weather.com - Sunday afternoon
Colder air will filter into the region on Monday. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 40s! This will make for a raw holiday. Sunday will be the better day of the two.
Check out the temperature difference from Sunday into Monday - then Tuesday. Sunday is the warmest day. Cold front passes on Sunday night/Monday morning - colder after frontal passage.
Calm weather will follow the storm system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal on those two days.
I am watching another system for next weekend - around Friday/Saturday. Still several days to pin down that forecast.
Several more storm systems to monitor over the coming weeks. Perhaps one of those will be around the Thanksgiving holiday.
Wind: North winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Tuesday Mostly sunny - cool temperatures.
Highs: in the lower 50s
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: November is zipping along and so is the weather. We have been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride in the temperature department. That appears as if it will continue into the coming weeks.
Warm air will continue on Sunday - ahead of an approaching cold front and storm system. Along with the warm air will come gusty southerly winds. Winds could be in the 20-40 mph range. Boaters use caution.
The cold front will approach our region on Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms. The line of showers and storms will push from west to east across our region. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.50"-1.00" range - locally heavier totals will be possible (especially if the line moves slower than expected).
Can't 100% rule out a few reports of snow at the end of the system - no accumulation is expected. Novelty flakes if they fly.
Here is the storm that is approaching our region - look at all of that precipitation! The second image is the map for Sunday evening and Sunday night - as the front moves through.
Future-cast radar from wright-weather.com - this is the NAM Model - model of choice for this event. Looks like the rain and storms will be approaching our region between 8 or 9 pm and then continuing into the early morning hours.
Here is the severe weather outlook for Sunday into Sunday night - you can see the orange area where the risk for a few severe thunderstorms will exist. Our region is in the general thunderstorms - that means some lightning and thunder - severe weather is not expected to be a major concern.
It will be windy ahead and along the front on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night - don't be surprised to see some gusts in the 20-40+ mph range. Especially right ahead of the front.
Wind map from wright-weather.com - Sunday afternoon
Colder air will filter into the region on Monday. Temperatures will likely not get out of the 40s! This will make for a raw holiday. Sunday will be the better day of the two.
Check out the temperature difference from Sunday into Monday - then Tuesday. Sunday is the warmest day. Cold front passes on Sunday night/Monday morning - colder after frontal passage.
Calm weather will follow the storm system for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal on those two days.
I am watching another system for next weekend - around Friday/Saturday. Still several days to pin down that forecast.
Several more storm systems to monitor over the coming weeks. Perhaps one of those will be around the Thanksgiving holiday.
Gusty winds will be a problem. Boaters use caution on area lakes.
The wild card in this forecast will be whether rain showers move out Monday morning before sunrise or if a few will remain in the 5 am through 10 am time frame.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits Yes, thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday night with a cold front. Gusty winds can't be ruled out with the storms/front. The risk for severe weather conditions should be very low. However, winds could gust above 40 mph at times ahead of the front and with the front.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice (few flurries possible).
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? A few thunderstorms will be possible between midnight and 4 am on Monday morning.
Tuesday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Sunday - No
Sunday night - No
Monday - No
Monday night - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Sunday night - No
Monday - No
Monday night - No
Tuesday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
The threat for a winter storm over the coming 5-7 day period is near zero. A cold front will push through the region on Monday morning - cold air will filter in behind the front. The rain/precipitation will come to an end before the cold air arrives in our region. There is no chance of significant winter precipitation in our region through Friday.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
What are my current thoughts on the chances for significant snow or ice over the next 7 days
The threat for a winter storm over the coming 5-7 day period is near zero. A cold front will push through the region on Monday morning - cold air will filter in behind the front. The rain/precipitation will come to an end before the cold air arrives in our region. There is no chance of significant winter precipitation in our region through Friday.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall in our region. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. Fairly active storm pattern setting up for the middle and end of November - I am expecting 2-3 additional storm systems to roll through our region with chances for showers and some thunderstorms. Too early to mention any severe weather concerns - but monitor future updates.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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