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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Wednesday: Beautiful - sunny - warm for October.
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s
Wind: South winds 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Highs: in the lower to middle 80s
Wind: South winds 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
Wednesday night: Mostly clear and pleasant.
Lows: in the upper 50s Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Sunny and mild for October - above normal temperatures to continue.
Highs: in the lower 80s Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Thursday night: An increase in clouds - continued mild - a chance for late night thunderstorms
Lows: in the 55-60 degree range
Wind: south winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
This
forecast
analysis covers far southern
Illinois, southeast
Missouri,
southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and
northwest
Tennessee
HEADLINES: The big story in the coming days is going to be the storm moving up along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
Tropical Storm Sandy is currently located south of Jamaica and is moving northward. Sandy will eventually become a hurricane and bring very heavy rainfall to the islands - flooding rains.
A trough of low pressure will move through our region on Thursday night into Friday night. This trough will bring a cold front into our local counties during the day on Friday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along the front - rainfall totals in our region should be on the light side. Severe weather is not currently forecasted with the cold front.
As the trough of low pressure moves east over the weekend it may combine with Sandy and become a powerful system. Some of the model data indicates a historic storm hitting portions of the Middle Atlantic and New England region. Those with interests along the East Coast of the United States should monitor updates in the coming days.
This is what the NAM Computer Model is showing for Sandy on Sunday. You can see it off the coast of Florida. You can also see on this map the cold front moving through our region. That would be the pink and purple area - the pink and purple indicates rainfall. See the scale at the bottom of the page.
Nothing too heavy for our region - but some showers and storms. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range.
Friday will turn much cooler and windy - raw fallish day.
Click image for full size view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
Let's take a look at what the GFS Computer Model is showing for Sunday - same time frame. Similar track - GFS (at this point) is a tad east of the NAM Model.
By Sunday morning the GFS has the system well off the East Coast of the United States - however, other models pull it further west. This will need to be monitored in the coming days. If this system does merge with the trough in the central United States then it will be one heck of a storm.
Look at what the European does with the storm - another model. It brings it well west and impacts New England with a devastating blow.
This image is from WeatherBell
Here is the GFS model low temperatures for Sunday and Monday morning - brr - part of these lows depend on the eventual track of our storm along the eastern seaboard.
I will need to fine tune the actual forecast lows as we move through the work week. If you have sensitive plants then you might pay a little more attention to forecast updates over the coming days.
Click image for real size view - image from www.wright-weather.com
Sunday morning lows
And then Monday morning lows
Here is what Sandy looks like on Satellite (as of Tuesday evening)
If Sandy fully merges with the trough of low pressure then we may experience even colder air than forecast for Sunday into the middle of next week. Perhaps our first hard freeze. Stay tuned.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year - see map below
Normal lows for this time of the year
Wind: south winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
HEADLINES: The big story in the coming days is going to be the storm moving up along the eastern seaboard of the United States.
Tropical Storm Sandy is currently located south of Jamaica and is moving northward. Sandy will eventually become a hurricane and bring very heavy rainfall to the islands - flooding rains.
A trough of low pressure will move through our region on Thursday night into Friday night. This trough will bring a cold front into our local counties during the day on Friday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will form along the front - rainfall totals in our region should be on the light side. Severe weather is not currently forecasted with the cold front.
As the trough of low pressure moves east over the weekend it may combine with Sandy and become a powerful system. Some of the model data indicates a historic storm hitting portions of the Middle Atlantic and New England region. Those with interests along the East Coast of the United States should monitor updates in the coming days.
This is what the NAM Computer Model is showing for Sandy on Sunday. You can see it off the coast of Florida. You can also see on this map the cold front moving through our region. That would be the pink and purple area - the pink and purple indicates rainfall. See the scale at the bottom of the page.
Nothing too heavy for our region - but some showers and storms. Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.40-0.80" range.
Friday will turn much cooler and windy - raw fallish day.
Click image for full size view - image is from www.wright-weather.com
Let's take a look at what the GFS Computer Model is showing for Sunday - same time frame. Similar track - GFS (at this point) is a tad east of the NAM Model.
By Sunday morning the GFS has the system well off the East Coast of the United States - however, other models pull it further west. This will need to be monitored in the coming days. If this system does merge with the trough in the central United States then it will be one heck of a storm.
This image is from WeatherBell
Here is the GFS model low temperatures for Sunday and Monday morning - brr - part of these lows depend on the eventual track of our storm along the eastern seaboard.
I will need to fine tune the actual forecast lows as we move through the work week. If you have sensitive plants then you might pay a little more attention to forecast updates over the coming days.
Click image for real size view - image from www.wright-weather.com
Sunday morning lows
Here is what Sandy looks like on Satellite (as of Tuesday evening)
If Sandy fully merges with the trough of low pressure then we may experience even colder air than forecast for Sunday into the middle of next week. Perhaps our first hard freeze. Stay tuned.
No major concerns at this time.
No.
No wild cards in this forecast package
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits No
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? No
Friday : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Is there a chance for thunderstorms BELOW severe limits? A few thunderstorms possible
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Thursday - No
Friday - No
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The
links above are interactive and
you can move
around the United States by
simply clicking on the
national map - or
from the pull down menu
where it says regions and
US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site !
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. I have added all of eastern Kentucky, as well.
We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS ---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's
check
out the how much rain is
forecast to fall in our
region. This map gives
you a general
broad brushed idea of
what can be
expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
Click the link below - then choose your the time period you are interested in!
CLICK HERE FOR THE RAINFALL GRAPHIC - then choose the time frame above the image
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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1. All eyes will be on the big storm moving up the east coast. The impact for our region will be cooler/colder air later this weekend and into next week.
The first week of November may bring a system into our region - this will need to be monitored. Some indications of a severe weather pattern. Long way off.
Latest drought information:
DROUGHT INFORMATION - CLICK HERE
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
If you are a weather enthusiast then I recommend listening to WeatherBrains each week! For a more in-depth look at what is happening in meteorology.
Now is a GREAT
time to buy a NOAA All Hazards
Weather Radio. Better to have one
before storms
strike than to be without one
during an event. I recommend the
Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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