August 20, 2010
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11 AM Update -
Severe weather risk is low today. Bigger chance of strong storms east of our immediate local counties. SPC has dropped the slight risk for much of the KPAH region. Still could be some storms redevelop later today. A few strong cells are possible.
I picked up 1.01" of rainfall this morning. The most rain we have received, at this location, in about two months.
- have a good weekend
Previous Discussion...
YOUR WEATHER HEADLINES:
1. A chance for rain/storms on Saturday (August 21st) - a few strong/severe storms will be possible.
2. Normal to above normal temperatures are expected next week. NOT expecting extreme heat or heat index values.
3. Concerns are growing over brush and grass fire conditions (some counties have burn bans in effect).
Primary Weather Concerns:
A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday - the Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk zone. The main threat from storms would be lightning and gusty/damaging winds. Isolated hail.
Fire departments continue to ask local residents to refrain from burning brush or grass/fields. Much of our region is experiencing drought conditions. These conditions will likely worsen in the coming weeks. The fall fire season could be active if conditions do not change soon.
Call To Action: There is a chance for spotter activation on Saturday (August 21st).
Outlook:
Most of the region remains in drought conditions (areas to the east of Kentucky Lake - central/eastern Kentucky - have received heavy rainfall over the last week). The drought continues to spread to more counties. The latest drought monitor maps can be viewed here. Click on a state to view county by county conditions. These maps are updated on Thursday mornings. As you can see, most of our local area has been experiencing dry conditions over the last few months. The overall pattern does not appear to be in any hurry to change. Unless a tropical system or a cold front stalls over our region then we may not experience much relief in the near term.
A frontal system will produce rain and thunderstorms in our region tonight and on Saturday. A few of these storms may be strong/severe. The main threat would be damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our local area in a risk for severe storms. A widespread severe weather event is not expected, at this time.
It is still my belief and forecast that the most intense heat is behind us. That does not mean we won't experience more hot weather. But, I am not seeing anything that indicates day after day 100+ weather - like what we experienced over the last few weeks.
This has been the 2nd warmest summer ever recorded in Paducah, Kentucky. We will likely make a run for the number 1 spot. Temperatures this coming week will likely be normal to above normal. That means upper 80s to middle 90s. Heat index values will be a bit lower as we will be in a drier air mass.
The drier air mass will raise some concerns for fire departments. Increasingly dry conditions will mean that the risk for brush and grass fires will increase. This will become an important topic as we enter the fall months. Stronger winds combined with dry conditions could cause many counties to implement burn bans. We already have several counties that have burn bans in effect.
Otherwise - most of the upcoming week is expected to remain dry.
For the American Red Cross readers - the tropical season is expected to become quite active over the coming weeks. Watching the circulation over Alabama, one off the southeast coast (east of Florida), and another in the far Atlantic.
This forecast was issued by - Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the Paducah/McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Useful links for radar and other information:
Latest Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Seven Day Forecast
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/hw3/
Paducah Hazardous Weather Outlook
http://kamala.cod.edu/ky/latest.flus43.KPAH.html
Storm Prediction Center
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Regional Radar
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly.php
or
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/radar/radar_link.shtml?map=SCR_BASE_REFL.gif
NWS Paducah
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
NWS Memphis
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/
NWS Jackson, KY
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/jkl/
NWS Louisville
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/
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