So, where do we go from here? Yesterday brought the first widespread thunderstorm activity in quite awhile. Although we only picked up 0.06" of rain (barely worth mentioning) other areas received heavy rain. Benton, Kentucky received nearly 2.5". Portions of Marshall County received 0.70". So, some decent totals - here and there. Not enough to break the drought across most of our region. But, a start for some of us.
Severe thunderstorm warnings were also issued for a number of counties - mainly for damaging winds. I measured 51 mph from the gust front winds. Many other areas reported 40+ mph winds. Some trees were downed in McCracken County and limbs were downed in Metropolis.
Today will bring more heat and humidity - perhaps a bit more humidity because of yesterdays rainfall. Heat index readings are once again expected to range from 100-115 degrees. Actual air temperatures will be in the upper 90s to near 100. If it makes you fell any better - the first winter weather advisory for the 2010-2011 season was issued for portions of Montana last night. Signs of fall are at least occurring somewhere! I am at least trying to find something for you to clink onto.
The near record streak of 90 degree days will continue into the weekend. It is possible that Paducah will at least tie the record for the most days being 90 degrees or above - in a row. You can review the records/stats on the NWS web-site - here.
Extreme heat will once again be the rule on Saturday. High temperatures in the upper 90s to 100+ will likely occur in most of our counties. Heat index values will be in the 105-115 range. Sizzle.
I believe temperatures will remain in the 90s on Sunday - then a cold front will push through our region. This will help lower temperatures into the 80s on Monday (although lower 90s will still be possible across portions of our region - especially southern portions) and into the 80s on Tuesday into next weekend. That is how it appears right now.
There are some disagreements on how this all plays out next week. Timing on the cold front is in question - especially if it slows down. Also with an influx of tropical moisture we could see humidity levels rise from Wednesday into Friday. If humidity levels rise and temperatures are still near 90 degrees then heat index readings could still approach 100. This will need to be monitored. However, for the time being I am going to stick with next week being slightly cooler and not as muggy. We will see how it goes.
There will be a chance for thunderstorms again today and Saturday. Although, it does not look like the coverage will be as widespread today as it was yesterday - over our northern counties. Our southern counties - say west Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee may have greater coverage. If storms do form then they will be locally heavy with strong winds. Isolated severe storms will once again be possible. The chance of storms will continue on Sunday although the risk is more likely to be across Arkansas and Tennessee - and along the KY/TN border and southeast portions of our local counties (mainly Kentucky). This again depends on where the front stalls out.
If the cold front slows then we will have to push the chances for storms a bit further north on Sunday. I will take a wait and see approach for now.
There is a low end chance (less than 10%) for a significant rain event late next week - after Wednesday it appears - across portions of the Tennessee Valley. A tropical system is forecast to intensify over the northern Gulf of Mexico - close to the coast. Then move north and northeast. IF - and that is a BIG if - that actually occurs then heavy rains will be possible across portions of the southern United States into the Tennessee Valley. Whether or not this would impact Kentucky is still uncertain. The development of the system itself is uncertain. Low risk (again less than 10%). Bottom line - something I will be watching. I will update accordingly - especially if it appears a flash flood event is in the cards for part of Kentucky (southeast part of the state does not handle heavy rainfall very well).
It appears that the worst of our heat wave is almost behind us. Does that mean we won't see more hot and humid weather? No. It does not mean that. Hot and humid weather will be possible in the coming weeks - especially with the dry soil conditions. Meteorological fall begins September 1st. So - the end of summer is at least in sight.
The National Weather Service Office in Paducah, Kentucky has continued excessive heat warnings for many of our counties into Saturday. You may view their warning map by visiting this web-site.
Your local six day forecast can be viewed here on my site
Your local radar can be viewed here
Heat Safety Rules - NWS Paducah, Kentucky
You can also follow me on Twitter - under Beau Dodson
The Weather Observatory also has a fan/group page on Facebook. Please check it out, as well!
- Beau Dodson (beaudodson@usawx.com)
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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