Good afternoon everyone!
I am updated Transportation Cabinet forecasts - see a few lines below
No big changes in the forecast - it is a bit warmer today than forecast. Temperatures have made it into the 40s over west KY and far southern IL.
So - we will bump up temperatures a bit for highs.
Otherwise - there is some light rain and drizzle around the area. Not freezing - since temperatures have warmed.
All of the latest data on the big southern storm just barely clips are region. I will keep precipitation chances for the southern and southeast parts of the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Could be a mix of rain and snow changing to snow.
The best chance for significant snow will be to our east. That part of the forecast remains the same.
Will continue to monitor the track of this large storm to our south as it moves northeast into the southeast United States. It would not take much of a shift westward to bring precip chances into our local counties. So - stay tuned for updates.
Areas of eastern Kentucky may be hit hard by heavy wet snow - especially the southeast counties of the state.
Here is the latest Canadian - which sort of takes the middle of the road approach to this storm. Not too far west and not too far east. Just about all of the data shows some impact for southeastern Kentucky.
This map shows you the total melted precipitation. Click image for a larger view. You can see that the precipitation attempts to make it into western Kentucky - very close. More likely eastern and southeast Kentucky will feel the brunt of this storm - then parts of Tennessee, as well.
The districts most likely to be impacted by this storm system
Minor impacts - Districts 1, 2, and 4
Moderate impacts - Districts 3, 4 (eastern), and 7
Major impacts likely - Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12
Districts 1 and 2 - 5 and 6 are most in question. They might be brushed by this event.
District map can be viewed here
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/dot.htm
January 24, 2011
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
January 24th Video will be posted around 9 or 10 pm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: A chance for light snow and drizzle on and off into Monday morning. Otherwise cloudy.
Forecast:
Monday - A chance for flurries or light drizzle and freezing drizzle early in the day. High temperature in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Monday night - Mostly cloudy. Lows in the middle to upper 20s.
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. A slight chance for rain or snow in the afternoon hours - over the far southern counties. High temperature in the upper 30s.
Tuesday night - A slight chance for rain or snow over our far southern counties. Lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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We have been talking about a large winter storm that would move up from the southern United States towards the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.
That storm is on track. The question is WHERE does it track.
Do we go further east or do we go further west. You could pick and choose your model data and come up with just about any forecast you want.
Some data shows heavy snows over Kentucky - some data shows not even a flake of snow in most of Kentucky.
Lot of questions remain.
The best chance for accumulating snow from this system would likely be over southern and eastern Kentucky. IF the track is far enough west.
Western Kentucky and southern Illinois appear far enough west that we will not have to worry too much about this storm. I will introduce some precipitation chances - especially for our southern counties on Tuesday into Tuesday night. These will be slight chances for now.
I will continue to track the system - and if I see any changes that need to be made then I will update the blog with the latest and greatest information!
I will continue to track the system - and if I see any changes that need to be made then I will update the blog with the latest and greatest information!
Here are some of the charts and what they are showing for this next big storm
The above image is the Canadian model - not the best model in the world. But - sometimes it does catch up on systems. It hasn't performed perfectly lately - but nor was many of the other models. It has the low pretty far west. It would give portions of Kentucky some decent snow - IF it were to verify.
The above image is the Canadian QPF (how much precipitation falls). You can see that it gives portions of central and eastern Kentucky quite a bit of snow. Again - this is an outlier. Meaning it isn't the most likely to verify. Something worth watching, though.
And finally - the UKMET model is showing the low WAY WAY west. This is the only model showing anything this far west - with precipitation reaching all the way back into Missouri.
Again - most of the data is taking this low further east. Far enough east that west Kentucky would not have to worry about it. I would say areas further to the east might have a bigger concern.
Right now all the reputable meteorologists are simply saying to watch and wait a bit longer before jumping on one set of solutions vs the other.
The NAM and GFS - two good models (usually) are not showing a hit for western Kentucky. Some hints of areas further east being impacted.
The above image is the Canadian model - not the best model in the world. But - sometimes it does catch up on systems. It hasn't performed perfectly lately - but nor was many of the other models. It has the low pretty far west. It would give portions of Kentucky some decent snow - IF it were to verify.
The above image is the Canadian QPF (how much precipitation falls). You can see that it gives portions of central and eastern Kentucky quite a bit of snow. Again - this is an outlier. Meaning it isn't the most likely to verify. Something worth watching, though.
And finally - the UKMET model is showing the low WAY WAY west. This is the only model showing anything this far west - with precipitation reaching all the way back into Missouri.
Again - most of the data is taking this low further east. Far enough east that west Kentucky would not have to worry about it. I would say areas further to the east might have a bigger concern.
Right now all the reputable meteorologists are simply saying to watch and wait a bit longer before jumping on one set of solutions vs the other.
The NAM and GFS - two good models (usually) are not showing a hit for western Kentucky. Some hints of areas further east being impacted.
The general consensus is the area of low pressure will be a bit further to the east. And that would mean the best chance of snow would be further east, as well.
However, I will monitor the track and update accordingly!
The next storm of interest might arrive around February 1st. That is a long way off! Plenty of time to keep an eye on that event. Also watching the time period around February 10-14th.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
Please visit Chris Bailey's weather blog if you live in central and eastern Kentucky http://www.kyweathercenter.com/
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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