August 2, 2010: Excessive heat and Colin forming

- updated at 2 pm for frontal passage subject

Yesterday was warm and today will be hot. The just about sums it all up! Not what anyone out there in our region wants to hear.

Temperatures will be on the rise both today and tomorrow. High temperatures in our region will be in the middle 90s today and the upper 90s to near 100 degrees tomorrow. The same will be true for Wednesday into Friday - 90s across the region. A few clouds may help temper the heat late in the week - along with a slight chance for thunderstorms.

The NWS out of Paducah, Kentucky has issued an excessive heat watch which could be upgraded to a warning. You can read more about that here.

As always take precautions if you have to work out in the heat. Check on elderly residents who may not be properly using their air conditions or fans. And don't forget about our outdoor friends. It is recommended that you change your pets water once or twice a day.

There will be a frontal system north of our region from the mid-week time period into late week. Although precipitation is not expected to be widespread there could be a few thunderstorms around the northern portion of the region. Any storms that do form could be heavy - as is usually the case during the summer months.

I do not believe the front is going to make it very far south - especially early on (Wednesday into Thursday). This high pressure ridge, that is the cause of our heat wave, is just too strong. Although some of the models have been showing the cold front moving through our region as early as Wednesday - I am not convinced they are correct.

Chances for real precipitation will be hard to find - at least through Wednesday. After that there should be a bit more of a push to the front and by Friday the hope is that the front will be moving into Tennessee.

Again, along and ahead of the front there will likely be some thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rain with any cells that do form. We will need to fine tune when the front will actually push through the region - assuming it doesn't get stuck near the KY/TN border.

Unfortunately the heat is expected to continue into the weekend and perhaps into next week. I know this has been a long summer for everyone. The peak of the heat will likely be today into Wednesday. Then ever so slightly cooler on Thursday and Friday. Hopefully dew points will be lower by the weekend - so even if it is still hot it will at least feel a little better outside.

The high temperature yesterday at the Weather Observatory north of Metropolis, Illinois was 89 degrees. Just shy of 90.

The risk for severe weather over the next 5 days will remain low. Storm Prediction Center's five day outlook. Any storms that form with the frontal system on Thursday or Friday could produce some heavy rain and gusty winds. Will just need to keep an eye on the timing of the frontal passage.

The NHC is closely monitoring a potential tropical depression out in the Atlantic. This system continues to gain strength and is expected to become a tropical depression at any time. If this system does form into a named storm then it would be called Colin.

At this time the tropical system is expected to move west/northwest towards the islands. Long range models take it anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico to the southeast coast or even curving it out to sea. There is quite a bit of debate on the eventual track of the system. We have plenty of time to watch the disturbance as it is still many days away.

Here is a satellite view of the system being monitored. Here are some forecast tracks that computer models are showing for what could become Colin.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201004_5day.html#a_topad
More information on the above link 

Our friends over at the National Weather Service Office out of Paducah, KY have issued a statement concerning the upcoming heat wave. If you would like to read more then please visit their website - click here.

That is it for today - I will keep an eye on our potential tropical system and the frontal system that will be near our region towards the middle of the week. I wish I had better news - I don't know how many people have been begging for rain and cooler temperatures - too many. It has just been one of those summers.

- Meteorologist Beau Dodson

August 1, 2010: Hot weather will continue through the week.

HAPPY August 1st!

Meteorological Fall begins on September 1st. So the countdown is already underway for those who are wanting cooler weather and fall. Just hang in there a little bit longer.

No real changes. Hot weather through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Expect daily high temperatures into the 90s. Mid to upper nineties can be expected on Monday into Thursday. I would not be surprised to see a few areas hit 100+ in our region. Heat index values will be in the 98 to 110 range. Dangerous heat and nothing to mess with - click here for some heat safety rules.

If you are interested in the official 6-10 day outlook then you may view those maps here at the climate prediction center. As you can see - hot weather is forecast to continue.

John Dissauer from KFVS Channel 12 has also placed some of his thoughts on his blog - concerning the heat wave.

Wondering just how many days we hit 90 degrees and above last month? Here are some climate data results from our friends over at the Paducah, KY NWS. Just hit preliminary monthly climate data - Paducah, KY and archived data - July 2010. That will bring up the monthly data sheet.

Little in the way of widespread precipitation is expected for our local counties. There have been scattered showers and storms over the last few days. And we can't rule out a few more in the coming days. Of course if you find yourself underneath one of those storms then heavy downpours and gusty winds can be expected. Along with the potential for lightning. However, severe weather is not expected. A frontal system will find itself near our region late in the week. This could add a few more storms to the forecast - mainly across the northern half of the area.

Your full forecast issued by the National Weather Service.

Still keeping an eye on two disturbed areas in the tropics. The one of most concern is the one that is way out in the Atlantic and came off the African Coast. This system has some potential to develop. Current forecast track. There is another system in the Caribbean that NHC is watching. We will see if one of these can develop into a named storm. I believe the Gulf of Mexico down along the Texas Coast over to Mississippi could be under some tropical threat over the coming 10 days period. Plenty of time to watch any development, though.

One last note - Joe Bastardi has his winter forecast out and at least for our region it pretty much matches up with what I have been saying and thinking for the past month. So, there is some agreement coming together on how this upcoming winter unfolds. I know we have some winter weather fans among our group.

Try to stay cool out there and remember that fall is not too far off.

July 31, 2010: Heat wave!

Hot weather is going to continue for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, the coming days will likely bring the highest temperatures of the season thus far. I would not be surprised to see real temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 during the Monday into Wednesday time frame. Heat index values will be even higher.

The National Weather Service Office in Paducah, Kentucky has put out a statement concerning the continuing heat wave. You can visit their web site for more information.

As far as precipitation goes - it appears that just a few scattered thunderstorms will be around today and tonight. Then small chances the rest of the week. For the most part high pressure will be in control. Current radar.

The risk for severe weather over the next seven days appears low. A few storms today across Kentucky and Tennessee - could be some isolated severe reports. We will be watching a frontal system towards the end of the week - IF and that is a big if - if it can make it far enough south then we might have to concern ourselves with a risk for thunderstorms. Any storms this time of the year can produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

A quick look at the tropics - everything is fairly quiet. The NHC is watching a few disturbances. It has been my forecast and continues to be that activity will increase dramatically after August 8th or so. That isn't to say that something can't develop before that time - but just that I believe activity will increase dramatically after that date. I do believe we are in for an active season when all is said and done. Many other meteorologists agree - including the NHC.

Long range - above normal temperatures will likely be the rule.  Still hoping for a bit of cooler weather towards August 7th or 8th.  Have mentioned that in the Facebook posts.  Long shot - but we will see.

I have been posting my winter thoughts on Facebook. A La Nina winter appears likely - however, we learned last year that El Nino and La Nina is not the only contributing factor in how the winter plays out. My early thoughts have been that we will see above normal temperatures overall for this winter and above normal precipitation. An increased risk for significant ice from Quincy, Illinois to the Ozarks and then into Tennessee. I believe there will be an above normal risk for a significant ice event or two in the above mentioned region.

Of course, everyone should remember that specific winter events are impossible to forecast more than a few days out. The best we can do with the long range is to give some overall ideas as to how a season is shaping up - above normal/below normal temps and precip - and so on. Nobody can specifically forecast a snow storm or ice storm months in advance.

We are also going to have to watch to see when the La Nina peaks - right now it appears it could peak quite early. This will make for a more difficult winter weather forecast. Still a long time to watch how all of this unfolds - but fun for weather weenies and watchers.

Hopefully we will break our dry spell as we move into the winter months and spring of 2011.

Remember you can sign up for my email list by sending me an email at beaudodson@usawx.com - you can also find me on Twitter and Facebook. During severe weather you can hear me on the emergency management radio frequencies as COM 10.

That is all for now! Try to stay cool out there.