September 3, 2010:
A beautiful weekend ahead of us. Some of the lowest temperatures we have experienced since last May. Can't complain about that.
Rain fell overnight in many of our counties. But some counties missed out. I only picked up 0.02" of rain. Nothing to write home about. Heavier rain fell over parts of southeast Missouri and Illinois.
Today through Sunday will bring nice conditions - a bit windy today. Would not be surprised to see temperatures fall into the 40s on Sunday morning. Impressive.
Earl continues to swirl off the east coast. Check the National Hurricane Center for updates. An active period in the tropics will continue through September. We will need to watch the Gulf of Mexico down to Texas and Mexico for some home grown development.
Gusty winds on Monday combined with low humidity levels will bring an enhanced risk for grass and field fires. So, use caution while burning debris or other. Some counties have fire bans until the drought ends.
Check the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service web-site for updated forecasts concerning the fire danger.
Enjoy the nice weekend!
- Beau Dodson
September 2, 2010: Few rain showers - latest drought maps
September 2, 2010:
Late Evening Update:
Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are moving through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as of 11 pm.
Some of the heavier storms will produce wind gusts to 30 mph and lightning. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" can be expected in the heaviest downpours - with a few spots receiving a bit more.
The line of showers and storms will approach the Mt Vernon to Cape Girardeau line between 11 pm and 12 am.
September 2, 2010:
No real changes to my forecast thoughts from yesterday - see the previous post.
The cold front is approaching our region from the west. Radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front. This area of rain will spread into the rest of our region this afternoon and this evening. No drought breaking rains are expected. Just some hit and miss precipitation - totals less than 0.25" are expected for most of us - locally heavy amounts if thunderstorms can hold together as they approach our immediate local counties later tonight. Check out your local and regional radar views by clicking here.
Your seven day forecast from the National Weather Service can be viewed here.
As you can see - we are expecting a nice weekend. Lower temperatures - a few clouds - and lower humidity. Humidity levels will increase again on Monday and into next week.
Our hurricane continues to churn off the southeast coast. It will come close to moving ashore later tonight. But, in the end it should just brush the United States. A brush will still cause serious problems. Beach erosion and the like. Probably going to cause millions in damage - and that is without a direct hit.
We told you awhile back that the tropics were about to become extremely active. That has become reality. I don't see any reason to believe that the storms are going to stop anytime soon. Numerous tropical storms and hurricanes are expected over the coming four to eight week period.
You can view the latest updates on this system (and the rest of the named storms in the Atlantic) by visiting the National Hurricane Center's web-site.
The latest drought monitor maps have been posted. The drought continues to spread across our region and areas to the south. We need a tropical system to push into the Gulf of Mexico and head in our direction. That would produce widespread moderate to heavy rain. Outside of a tropical system it will be difficult to break our drought. The changing of the seasons (stronger storm systems) should also help our cause. The long range - see yesterdays post - shows average to below normal precipitation for September.
The latest drought monitor maps can be viewed by clicking here.
Have a great holiday weekend!
- Beau Dodson
Late Evening Update:
Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms are moving through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois as of 11 pm.
Some of the heavier storms will produce wind gusts to 30 mph and lightning. Rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" can be expected in the heaviest downpours - with a few spots receiving a bit more.
The line of showers and storms will approach the Mt Vernon to Cape Girardeau line between 11 pm and 12 am.
September 2, 2010:
No real changes to my forecast thoughts from yesterday - see the previous post.
The cold front is approaching our region from the west. Radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms ahead and along the front. This area of rain will spread into the rest of our region this afternoon and this evening. No drought breaking rains are expected. Just some hit and miss precipitation - totals less than 0.25" are expected for most of us - locally heavy amounts if thunderstorms can hold together as they approach our immediate local counties later tonight. Check out your local and regional radar views by clicking here.
Your seven day forecast from the National Weather Service can be viewed here.
As you can see - we are expecting a nice weekend. Lower temperatures - a few clouds - and lower humidity. Humidity levels will increase again on Monday and into next week.
Our hurricane continues to churn off the southeast coast. It will come close to moving ashore later tonight. But, in the end it should just brush the United States. A brush will still cause serious problems. Beach erosion and the like. Probably going to cause millions in damage - and that is without a direct hit.
We told you awhile back that the tropics were about to become extremely active. That has become reality. I don't see any reason to believe that the storms are going to stop anytime soon. Numerous tropical storms and hurricanes are expected over the coming four to eight week period.
You can view the latest updates on this system (and the rest of the named storms in the Atlantic) by visiting the National Hurricane Center's web-site.
The latest drought monitor maps have been posted. The drought continues to spread across our region and areas to the south. We need a tropical system to push into the Gulf of Mexico and head in our direction. That would produce widespread moderate to heavy rain. Outside of a tropical system it will be difficult to break our drought. The changing of the seasons (stronger storm systems) should also help our cause. The long range - see yesterdays post - shows average to below normal precipitation for September.
The latest drought monitor maps can be viewed by clicking here.
Have a great holiday weekend!
- Beau Dodson
September 1, 2010: Meteorological Autumn Begins - Rain chances and much cooler weather in your seven day forecast
September 1, 2010:
Mid-afternoon
Amazing images of "shock waves" sent through the atmosphere from Hurricane Earl - the top image - wait for the loop to load. Quite amazing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/6560
September 1, 2010:
Forecast information from Beau Dodson - Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Well, Meteorological Autumn has arrived. And with it will come some of the coolest air we have seen since last May. But - we still have a couple of more warm days ahead of us.
A cold front will approach our region over the next 24 to 48 hours. The frontal system is expected to move through southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Friday. Along and ahead of the front will be a band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated over our immediate local counties.
There will be some showers and storms ahead of the front today over Missouri and Illinois - but these will likely remain west of our local counties. More towards St Louis and back to Springfield, Missouri. Regional radar can be viewed here on the Weather Observatory web-site.
A few scattered showers could intrude on far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky later this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than 0.25".
Our chances for showers will increase on Thursday night and Friday morning. There is some question on the exact timing of the front moving through - right now it appears Friday morning into Friday afternoon will be the most likely time for frontal passage. The most likely time for rain would be Thursday night and Friday morning - rainfall totals of less than 1/2" are expected - with some counties receiving very little. Our drought will continue.
Some of the coolest air we have experienced since the middle of last May will filter into the region on Friday and Saturday. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 80 degrees. Overnight lows will be well down into the 50s. I would not rule out some upper 40s on Friday night and Saturday night across portions of eastern Missouri and the northern part of southern Illinois. Refreshing air. Your seven day National Weather Service forecast can be viewed here on the Weather Observatory web-site.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be above normal - temperatures Friday into Sunday will be below normal - temperatures on Monday through Wednesday of next week will be above normal. Precipitation will be below normal through the next seven days. Normal highs this time of the year are around 85 degrees and normal lows for this time of the year are around 60 degrees. Your official one month outlook from the National Weather Service can be viewed here (warm and dry September forecast).
The next significant chance of rain appears to be towards the end of next week.
Our drought will continue into next week. I do not see anything in the charts that indicate a drought breaking rain is imminent. Sorry. Drought monitor maps can be viewed here - click on your state for a local view.
MAJOR HURRICANE EARL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES...
Hurricane Earl is behaving as expected. The track of the storm is expected to remain just offshore of the Carolinas and southeast coast. The hurricane will then track north/northeast and brush (but don't be fooled - this storm whether it just brushes the coast or not will cause millions of dollars in damage) the northeast region - before moving into Canada. Significant impacts are expecting for parts of the coastline. Visit your local National Weather Service Office - click here - for local forecasts. I have the live view camera centered on Earl today - you can view that by clicking here.
Any slight westward movement of this hurricane would cause even more problems than already expected - which are significant. A hurricane doesn't have to move ashore to cause destruction and life threatening conditions.
For the latest updates on Hurricane Earl you can visit the National Hurricane Centers web-site - here. Earl isn't the only problem in the Atlantic. Additional systems are located behind Earl. View those here.
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
To view previous forecast updates and monthly outlooks - click here
Your local radar can be viewed here.
You can always view the Paducah, Kentucky NWS web-site for the latest watches and warnings.
Click images below for larger views - remember these are time sensitive (visit the NHC web-site for the most up to data forecasts)
Forecast Track For Hurricane Earl
Tropical Storm Force Wind Forecast For Hurricane Earl
Forecast Lows For Saturday Morning - image from wright-weather
Sunday Morning Low Temperatures - Refreshing Air!
HPC Five Day Rainfall Forecast - Broad Brushed
Hurricane Earl Spins In The Atlantic Ocean - Wednesday Morning
------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range forecasts - a long duration La Nina event could be ahead of us. Also winter temperature model forecasts - WARM. Click for large image.
Long Range Temperature Forecasts
A long La Nina developing?
Mid-afternoon
Amazing images of "shock waves" sent through the atmosphere from Hurricane Earl - the top image - wait for the loop to load. Quite amazing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/6560
September 1, 2010:
Forecast information from Beau Dodson - Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
Well, Meteorological Autumn has arrived. And with it will come some of the coolest air we have seen since last May. But - we still have a couple of more warm days ahead of us.
A cold front will approach our region over the next 24 to 48 hours. The frontal system is expected to move through southern Illinois and western Kentucky on Friday. Along and ahead of the front will be a band of showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather is not anticipated over our immediate local counties.
There will be some showers and storms ahead of the front today over Missouri and Illinois - but these will likely remain west of our local counties. More towards St Louis and back to Springfield, Missouri. Regional radar can be viewed here on the Weather Observatory web-site.
A few scattered showers could intrude on far southeast Missouri, far southern Illinois, and western Kentucky later this afternoon and tonight. Rainfall totals are expected to be less than 0.25".
Our chances for showers will increase on Thursday night and Friday morning. There is some question on the exact timing of the front moving through - right now it appears Friday morning into Friday afternoon will be the most likely time for frontal passage. The most likely time for rain would be Thursday night and Friday morning - rainfall totals of less than 1/2" are expected - with some counties receiving very little. Our drought will continue.
Some of the coolest air we have experienced since the middle of last May will filter into the region on Friday and Saturday. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 80 degrees. Overnight lows will be well down into the 50s. I would not rule out some upper 40s on Friday night and Saturday night across portions of eastern Missouri and the northern part of southern Illinois. Refreshing air. Your seven day National Weather Service forecast can be viewed here on the Weather Observatory web-site.
Temperatures today and tomorrow will be above normal - temperatures Friday into Sunday will be below normal - temperatures on Monday through Wednesday of next week will be above normal. Precipitation will be below normal through the next seven days. Normal highs this time of the year are around 85 degrees and normal lows for this time of the year are around 60 degrees. Your official one month outlook from the National Weather Service can be viewed here (warm and dry September forecast).
The next significant chance of rain appears to be towards the end of next week.
Our drought will continue into next week. I do not see anything in the charts that indicate a drought breaking rain is imminent. Sorry. Drought monitor maps can be viewed here - click on your state for a local view.
MAJOR HURRICANE EARL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF THE UNITED STATES...
Hurricane Earl is behaving as expected. The track of the storm is expected to remain just offshore of the Carolinas and southeast coast. The hurricane will then track north/northeast and brush (but don't be fooled - this storm whether it just brushes the coast or not will cause millions of dollars in damage) the northeast region - before moving into Canada. Significant impacts are expecting for parts of the coastline. Visit your local National Weather Service Office - click here - for local forecasts. I have the live view camera centered on Earl today - you can view that by clicking here.
Any slight westward movement of this hurricane would cause even more problems than already expected - which are significant. A hurricane doesn't have to move ashore to cause destruction and life threatening conditions.
For the latest updates on Hurricane Earl you can visit the National Hurricane Centers web-site - here. Earl isn't the only problem in the Atlantic. Additional systems are located behind Earl. View those here.
- Beau Dodson
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
To view previous forecast updates and monthly outlooks - click here
Your local radar can be viewed here.
You can always view the Paducah, Kentucky NWS web-site for the latest watches and warnings.
Click images below for larger views - remember these are time sensitive (visit the NHC web-site for the most up to data forecasts)
Forecast Track For Hurricane Earl
Tropical Storm Force Wind Forecast For Hurricane Earl
Forecast Lows For Saturday Morning - image from wright-weather
Sunday Morning Low Temperatures - Refreshing Air!
HPC Five Day Rainfall Forecast - Broad Brushed
Hurricane Earl Spins In The Atlantic Ocean - Wednesday Morning
------------------------------------------------------------------
Long range forecasts - a long duration La Nina event could be ahead of us. Also winter temperature model forecasts - WARM. Click for large image.
Long Range Temperature Forecasts
A long La Nina developing?
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