Your Hometown Weather

November 28th and 29th: Chilly with more precipitation in the forecast

November 28th and 29th, 2011

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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Monday night: Windy at times - cold - raw. Rain or a mixture of rain/snow/sleet. Some slushy accumulation possible in some areas. Heaviest accumulation most likely over the Missouri Bootheel into western Tennessee/eastern Arkansas.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 10-20 mph - gusty.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Tuesday: Cold rain or a mixture of rain/sleet/snow. Thundersnow in the heaviest bands. Heavier bands of snow will produce 1-2" of snow per hour rates. This will cause traffic problems in some counties.
Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 37-40 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy skies. Cold.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Northwesterly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Wednesday: A few clouds - cool.

Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 44 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain again tonight and Tuesday - some counties will see the rain mix with or change to snow. Can't rule out some slushy accumulations - especially if a band or two of heavier snow forms. Some areas will remain mostly rain.
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Other than the chance for some slushy accumulation of snow - some roads will become slick and hazardous..

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The obvious wild card in this forecast is where and when rain changes to snow over our region. Difficult forecast and it is not clear cut. Some areas will remain all rain while others will change to snow - a wet snow. Slushy accumulation not out of the question. Use caution in the heavier snow bands.
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Tweaked precipitation type.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A mix of snow and sleet possible in some of our counties.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow or sleet likely in some of our counties..
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: Rain rain rain - can't seem to shake the rain. Rain will continue into tonight and Tuesday as the upper level low moves through our region. Don't be surprised to see some bands of heavier snow in a few counties. The exact placement of that snow is in question. Keep that in mind as the evenings weather unfolds. There will be some snow in our region.
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Rain and snow will come to an end on Tuesday afternoon as the storm finally pulls away.
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Can't rule out some heavy wet snow in some counties - several inches of snow may occur - especially over the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas, and western Tennessee. But the bands could extend further north into the rest of the area. In the heaviest bands of snow you can expect 2-4" of snow.
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Colder weather for the rest of the week - lows down into the 20s. A bit on the cold side.
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The next storm system will move into the region on Sunday into Monday. A bit too far off to make a call on rainfall totals with that system and/or if there might be some wintry mix included.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Can't rule out some snow mixed with the rain at times. Slushy accumulation will be possible in counties that switch over to all snow. Would not be surprised to see several inches fall over parts of the region - wet snow.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation.
Severe Risk: None
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High on the cold
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation around the 3rd/5th
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Possible precip around the 3rd/5th - rain or a mix. Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 12th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 16th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No major changes made in the extended forecast.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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November 27th-28th: Wet and cold - coldest air of season this week

November 26th and 27th, 2011
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Sunday night: Chilly rain from time to time - drizzle. Rain may mix with snow at times.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Feels like temperature: In the 20s
Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph - gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Monday: Chilly rain from time to time - drizzle - rain mixed with sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question. Rain increasing more during the afternoon and evening hours.
Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 40 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Feels like temperature: In the 20s
Wind: North winds at 10-20 mph. - gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 010-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday night: Cloudy - chilly - with rain at times. Rain mixed with or changing to sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Feels like temperature: In the 20s/30s
Wind: North winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.60"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Tuesday: Cloudy and chilly - a chance for rain. Rain mixed with or changing to sleet and snow from time to time - slushy accumulation on grass not out of the question
Below normal temperatures.
Highs: around 40-42 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Feels like temperature: In the 20s/30s

Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph. - gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.20-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain - on and off. Periods of sleet and snow mixed in. Accumulations are possible - mainly on grassy surfaces and cars.
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Monitor for updates on the snow potential.

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The wild card in this forecast is whether there might be some rain/snow mix at times. No big changes from previous forecast thoughts - novelty event if it snows at all. Any snow that accumulates would be on grassy surfaces for the most part. If a heavier band of snow develops then several inches of slushy snow may accumulate in some areas.
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Tweaked precipitation type forecast - totals, as well.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No significant snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow or sleet possible at times.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow or sleet possible.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Mix of snow and sleet at times.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: Cold rain continues this afternoon. Most areas have picked up between 1-2" of rain since it started yesterday afternoon. Here at the Weather Observatory we have picked up a little over 1.60". This is on top of the 7 1/2" over the last two weeks. Wet wet wet.
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Cold temperatures moved into the region overnight. Highs today struggled to get out of the 40s. As of this writing, at 3 pm, temperatures are in the upper 30s and lower 40s over most of our region.
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Rain will continue on and off into Tuesday. There will be some breaks - especially over the western half of the region. Rain should increase in coverage on Monday evening as the upper level low moves around a bit.
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Rain will finally come to an end on Tuesday. Can't rule out some rain/snow mix in some of our counties over the next few days. This would be a novelty event. Significant accumulations are not forecast. Accumulations would most likely be on grassy areas or cars - table tops.
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Can't rule out heavier snow a bit south of our area - mainly in parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, and perhaps Mississippi/Alabama. Closer to the upper level lows core. This is where the coldest temperatures should be. Ground temperatures are warm and actual surface temperatures are marginal for a snow event.
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IF a heavier band of snow forms in our region then accumulations could occur. These upper level systems are notorious for producing pockets of heavy snow - in bands. Snow can accumulate to the depth of several inches rather quickly.
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Temperatures on Monday will be below normal - see graphic below. This isn't the temperature - this is how much below normal we will be on Monday.
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Here are the WIND CHILL forecast maps for Monday and Tuesday - a bit on the cold side ;)
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Can't rule out some snow mixed with the rain at times. Some accumulation is possible - especially in parts of Kentucky and Indiana. Monitor for updated forecasts.

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: November 27th -November 31st
Event: Below to much below normal temperatures. Can't rule out some mixed precipitation.
Severe Risk: None
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Some mixed precipitation can't be ruled out
Details: Colder air arrives behind our holiday weekend storm.
Confidence in my forecast: High on the cold
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation around the 4th-6th
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Possible precip around the 4th-6th - rain or a mix. Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 12th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 16th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low

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1. No major changes to the extended. Coldest air of the season later this week with temperatures well down into the 20s.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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All other states- Click Here
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November 26th and 27th: Rain - cold rain.

November 26th and 27th, 2011
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.

.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Saturday night: Rain - moderate to heavy rain at times. Some small stream and urban flooding possible - flood prone areas with poor runoff may have some problems. Turning colder.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: In the upper 30s western areas and lower 40s elsewhere | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: west/northwest winds at 10-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.70-1.25" with pockets of heavier totals.
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Sunday: Cloudy with some cold light showers and drizzle from time to time. Colder. Breezy at times.
Below normal temperatures.

Highs: In the lower 40s. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals after 7 am: 0.10-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday night: Cloudy with a cold light rain likely at times - raw.
Below normal temperatures.

Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 50% | Rainfall totals: 0.10-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is medium

Monday: Cold light showers possible in the morning then rain increasing again the afternoon - raw.

Below normal temperatures.

Highs: around 38-44 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: West/northwest winds at 5-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals after 7 am: 0.20-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Rain could cause some urban and small stream flooding. Areas with poor drainage could have some issues with water, as well. Widespread 1-3" of rain between tonight and Tuesday. Pockets of heavier rain possible.
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Avoid flooded roadways - could be a few problem spots (the common areas that have problems)

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Wild card in this forecast is whether or not the rain completely changes to snow on Sunday night. Temperatures will be marginal but may fall just enough to provide the opportunity for the rain to mix with or change to snow in some counties. This would likely be a novelty type event and should not cause major problems.
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Tweaked rainfall totals

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A rumble of thunder is possible.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow is possible at times - mixing with the rain. Rain may change to snow from time to time in some of our counties. Accumulation is not expected to be significant or warrant attention.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow is possible early in the day in some of our counties. Accumulation is not expected to be significant or warrant attention.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: The coldest air of the season will arrive this week - along with the possibility of a mix of rain and snow.
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Rain was slower to move in today than expected. Some rain fell during the morning hours. The widespread rain is just now moving in - late this afternoon. Should have gone with lower precipitation totals and percentages for the 11 am - 3 pm time frame (esp southern IL and western KY. Southeast MO did pick up widespread rain this afternoon with amounts over 1/2" in some areas.
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Rain is invading the area this afternoon - from west to east. This band of moderate to heavy rain will continue to push east through the region during the overnight hours. Rain totals by Sunday morning will likely be in the 1-2" range across the region. This could cause some ponding of water issues - also problems with small streams or poor drainage areas.
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The rain is going to continue on and off right on into Tuesday. A difficult forecast will be on tap for Sunday night into Tuesday morning. Rain may mix with or change to snow from time to time. The best chance for this occurring would be Sunday night and again Monday night/Tuesday. Right now accumulation is not expected. This would be more of a novelty event than anything else. However, as mentioned above - these type of systems can throw a curve ball from time to time - watch for updates.
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Upper level lows are notorious for surprising forecasters when it comes to snowfall. I would not be surprised to see some accumulating snow over parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama - this is where the coldest air aloft may set up. Thus - the better chance for pockets of heavier snow.
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The coldest air of the season arrives towards the middle and end of the week. Temperatures could drop into the upper teens in some of our counties - widespread 20s are forecast elsewhere.
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An active early part of the new work week and then and colder weather.
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Here are the precipitation maps for the next few days - time tables at the top of the image.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Pockets of snow may occur on Sunday night and Monday morning and again on Monday night/Tuesday. Right now it appears unlikely that significant accumulation would occur over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Monitor for updates as the event unfolds. Upper level systems are know for throwing curve balls. Right now this appears to be a novelty event - meaning you may see some flakes in the air from time to time but significant issues are not expected.

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: December 1st - December 11th
Event: Mostly below normal temperatures. Active pattern.
Severe Risk: Not expecting severe weather.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possible precipitation around the 3rd/5th
Details: Cold air - several shots of below normal temperatures. Possible precip around the 3rd/5th - rain or a mix. Too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: December 12th - December 18th
Event: Swings in temperatures.
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: One or two precipitation events possible
Details: Transition period with swings from above to below normal temperatures. A chance for one or two precipitation events - too soon to make a call on precip type.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: December 16th - December 22nd
Event: Precipitation event - larger storm system.
Severe Risk: Unknown
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Unknown
Details: A more significant storm system possible in or near our region.
Confidence in my forecast. Low

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Date Range: December 27th-30th
Event: Significant storm system in the Missouri/Ohio/Tennessee Valley
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk:
Details: Potential precipitation event.
Confidence in my forecast: Low
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1. Active pattern for the end of November. Our ongoing rain event will come to an end by Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. Then below normal temperatures are expected for the middle and end of the week. Widespread 20s for overnight lows - even some teens possible in a few counties by the end of the week.
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The next chance for widespread precipitation may hold off until around December 3rd-6th. Long way off - plenty of time to monitor. Low confidence in that event - at this time.
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As we push into December it will be cold at the start and then perhaps wider swings towards the middle of the month - with above and below normal temperatures from time to time. A couple of precipitation events will be possible, as well - see above.
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Watching for a bigger event towards the latter part of the second week or beginning of the third week of December and then again towards the end of December.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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All other states- Click Here
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November 28th and 29th: Chilly with more precipitation in the forecast

November 27th-28th: Wet and cold - coldest air of season this week

November 26th and 27th: Rain - cold rain.

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