Your Hometown Weather

January 31st-February 1st: Say goodbye to one of the warmer Januarys

2012-01-31T15:02:00.001-06:00

January 31st - February 1st - 2012
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tuesday night: Clouds - scattered showers and possible thunderstorms
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph gusts to 20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"- 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with some scattered showers - mild.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 60 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Some clouds. Perhaps an evening sprinkle.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny. Continued mild.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns.
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Some rivers are flooding - click here for that information

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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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Tweaked rain chances a little bit - otherwise no major changes.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? A rumble of thunder possible.
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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TORNADO MYTHS? What to believe and not to believe - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

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HEADLINE: HELLLLLOOOO spring - is that you! Temperatures have been in the sixties over the last 2 days. This is still January - isn't it? People are starting to wonder! Did we skip winter and hop right on into spring? Sure does feel like it.
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Check out these departure maps for Tuesday (today) and Wednesday - these maps show you HOW MUCH ABOVE normal temperatures have been or are expected to be (high temperatures) - disgustingly warm - sorry snow fans - I do feel your pain!
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Let's take a look at the month of January - just how far above normal were temperatures? QUITE a few degrees. Will it be the warmest January on record for the nation? We will have to wait on those numbers and see where it places. Definitely warm - but you already knew that.
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Here are the departure from normal maps - first for temperatures (it was pretty much the whole nation that was above normal - except Alaska)
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Next take a look at the precipitation departures and how much precipitation fell - we weren't too dry and weren't too wet in January - some counties had above normal precipitation. Rivers are high again - didn't take much to get the rivers to rise.
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Here are the precipitation maps - this first map shows you the departure from normal precipitation - we were mostly normal to above normal
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This map above shows you the PERCENT of normal precipitation
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The map below shows you how much precipitation fell - zoomed in on the midwest region
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We also had some severe thunderstorms during the month of January - let's take a look at the Storm Prediction Center's maps - first map shows you were tornadoes were reported, second map shows you where high winds were reported, third map shows you where hail reports came from, and the last map shows you all of the above combined. It was a busy month for tornadoes - above normal numbers.
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Anyway - that is your look back at the month of January - I will have some hard numbers tomorrow for our local region (how much above normal temperatures were - no doubt December and January are in the top 10 warmest on record - just what number they place will have to be determined)
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A storm system will impact our region this evening into Wednesday - rain showers with a possible rumble of thunder. Not a big deal - rainfall amounts will be light (see maps below).
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A stronger storm system will impact the region on Friday and Saturday. I am in the rain camp on this event - also believe we will see some thunderstorm development in the region. A bit early to make a call on strong or severe storms - as always check back for updates
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Rainfall amounts from Friday night into Saturday (perhaps even Sunday) will be in the 0.40-0.80" range - might be some heavier totals (some data is showing the potential for over an inch of rain) and I will fine tune that part of the forecast as we move forward through the week.
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Here are the broad-brushed precipitation maps for the next couple of days - you get the general idea - some showers around our region - rumble of thunder. Winter stays to our north and west.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This first map is rainfall through Wednesday night - the second map adds in the late week storm system - could be some heavier precipitation with the late week event (Friday/Saturday) - timing will need to be fine tuned as we draw a bit closer.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 5th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.

Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday - 0%
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1. Sorry snow fans - I feel your pain. I don't have any good news for you.
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Watching a storm system for Friday into Saturday - I am thinking rain and some thunderstorms. Uncertain on severe weather - I like to wait until we get closer to an event to make a call on that subject. Will monitor.
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This is the NAM model from www.wright-weather.com - showing a decent storm system wrapped up to our west - remember when the LOW pressure tracks to our west we typically end up on the warm side of the storm with rain and thunderstorms - as the storm passes us by to the east then the cold air will wrap in behind the storm. The NAM shows a decent signal for some thunderstorms - this is Friday evening's map. Click these images for the full size view
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This second map shows you the DEW POINT temperatures - struggling. I like to see dew points into the 50s or 60s in order to start thinking about severe thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored. Right now it appears a better chance for heavier storms over parts of KS/OK/TX/SW MO/AR. Again - let's monitor this in the coming days.
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Our region will certainly see some rain from this next system and some rumbles of thunder. I am certain about that - most likely late on Friday into Saturday.
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Rain may continue into Sunday - can't completely rule out a light mix as the storm pulls away and the upper level lows move close to the region. Will monitor - right now it does not look to be a big deal. Still some time to go before I can be more certain.
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No big changes in the overall pattern - some splashes of cold weather mixed in with the above normal temperatures pattern. Seems like a broken record this winter - doesn't it? Just can't seem to get the cold weather to lock in place. We are running out of time - meteorological spring begins on March 1st. The clock is ticking!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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January 30th - 31st: January quickly coming to an end - mild temps continue

2012-01-30T13:39:00.002-06:00

January 30th-31st - 2012
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Monday night: A few clouds - otherwise mostly clear.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Tuesday: An increase in clouds. Mild. Breezy at times. A few showers likely as the warm air streams into the area.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 62-66 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. Showers possible. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds - continued mild - above normal temperatures. A few showers possible.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 58-62 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-15 mph - turning more to the west in the afternoon
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"

No major concerns.

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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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Increased rain chances for Tuesday

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance for a rumble of thunder.

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: Yawn - that is the sound I am making today in this update. Not the most exciting weather for January. Mild temperatures will continue into Wednesday - above to much above normal temperatures to be exact.
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Check out these wonderful temperatures for Tuesday! Can't beat that in January.
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Our next weather maker arrives on Tuesday night and Wednesday - this will bring a few showers into the region. No severe or extreme weather is expected. Rainfall totals should be in the 0.20-0.40" range - appear the lighter side of that is more likely than the heavier.
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We will continue to watch for another potential precipitation maker towards Friday into Saturday. There are rumors and more rumors of snow and cold - I won't get overly excited just yet. The data on the late week storm system has been sketchy AT BEST. Right now it looks like a rain event - perhaps another 0.25"-0.50" total precip.
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Will monitor and update accordingly.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 5th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday - 0%

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 5%

Sunday - 0%

1. The long range will be focused on the potential for another rain maker on Friday into Saturday. Model data has been all over the place with this system. Right now it appears there will be a chance for rain on Friday in our region and this will continue into Friday night. If enough cold air is pulled into the system then it might change over to a mix at the end.
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We will also have to monitor for thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday - this, again, will depend on storm track.
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For now the above is what I will go with and will monitor the latest data for any changes.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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All other states- Click Here
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January 29th - 30th: Calm Monday in store for the region!

2012-01-29T14:34:00.001-06:00

January 29th-30th - 2012
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Sunday night: A few clouds.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Monday: Mostly sunny and MILD! Breezy at times.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 56-62 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times (gusts into the 30s)
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Mostly clear and mild for January.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Tuesday: Warm - a few clouds - unseasonably mild. Windy at times.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 65 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: South to southwest winds at 10-30 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high

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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns.

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No
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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No major changes in this forecast

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

HEADLINE: OKAY who ordered the MILD weather? Someone sure did! Temperatures will move into the upper 50s and lower 60s on Monday and INTO the 60s on Tuesday! I hope all the "spring" weather fans are enjoying this incredibly mild winter.
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Area rivers continue to rise - you can find the latest river forecasts by clicking here
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The next storm system will move into the region by Tuesday night into Thursday morning - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Right now I don't believe we have to worry about severe weather during that time frame. As always - I will keep an eye on it.
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Rainfall amounts will be in the 0.30"-0.70"
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Check out just how mild the next few days will be! These maps show you the departures from normal in the temperature department. WELLLLLL above normal readings on Monday and Tuesday.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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1. Our next shot at rain should arrive around Friday night into Saturday - will keep an eye on storm track. Somewhat colder air is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley as we push into the weekend into next week. Will have to monitor for any potential snow chances.
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Short updates the last couple of days - working on some new radars for the web-site and what not.
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Enjoy the next couple of days - mild mild mild.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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All other states- Click Here
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January 28th - 29th: Fairly calm weather continues into Sunday :) - Enjoy!

2012-01-28T15:19:00.000-06:00

January 28th-29th - 2012
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Saturday night: Partly cloudy and a bit colder.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Sunday: Mostly sunny.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: A few clouds.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Monday: A few clouds - mild for January

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Southerly at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

No major concerns.

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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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No changes - calm into Sunday

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

HEADLINE: Short update today - working on computers and the web-site. Adding some radars and new products.
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Calm weather into Sunday/Monday. Another shot at rain towards the middle of the new work week. Active pattern the next three weeks.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.

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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: February 5th-15th
Event: Active period of weather - several shots at colder weather will be possible. A couple of precipitation events.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday - 0%

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%

1. Chance of rain on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another shot at rain next Friday/Saturday. More details in tomorrows update.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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All other states- Click Here
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January 27th - 28th: Fairly calm weather

2012-01-27T12:39:00.000-06:00

January 27th-28th - 2012
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Friday night: Clouds with a chance for light rain showers - possibly a flurry or mix over northern counties.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph and gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday: Partly cloudy at times - breezy.
Near normal to above temperatures

Highs: around 44-48 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: West and northwest winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.

Saturday night: Mostly clear skies - colder.
Near normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Sunday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 48 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

No major concerns. Northern and northeastern counties might see a mix of light precipitation tonight - do not believe it will cause any significant problems and precipitation totals should be on the light side.

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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast - can't rule out a few flurries/pellets of sleet over parts of the region on Friday night - will not be a big deal if they fall at all...
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No major changes in this forecast

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few reports of light snow/sleet possible tonight
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

HEADLINE: A calm few days ahead of us in the region. I guess weather people can get a break from the recent active spell.
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A weak system moves through the area tonight (Friday night) with some clouds a chance for light rain showers - possibly mixed precipitation over our northern and northeastern counties - do not believe this will amount to much. Precipitation amounts will be light.
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Saturday and Sunday will bring seasonable temperatures and more sun than clouds. Fairly calm days. Winds will be gusty at times.
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Nothing major to talk about in the short range discussion!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

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. .

I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday - 0%

1. Nothing major to talk about in the long range. Another system may approach towards the middle of next week - this will bring our next shot at rain.
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No major winter storms to track - at this time. No major severe weather concerns.
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Enjoy the calm!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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All other states- Click Here
.

January 26th - 27th: Rain will come to an end

2012-01-26T16:29:00.001-06:00

January 26th-27th - 2012
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday night: Evening rain - ending late.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.30
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: Mostly cloudy skies for the most part - morning fog will mix out late in the morning.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 47 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.

Friday night: Some increase in clouds - slight chance for a sprinkle or flurry.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: West at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Saturday: Sunny with seasonable temperatures.
Near normal temperatures

Highs: around 45 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

No major concerns.

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No

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No measurable snow in our short range forecast...
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Some light mixed precipitation will be possible Friday night/Saturday morning - this should not amount to much if anything...
.

Changed cloud conditions for today

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.

Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Slight chance for light precipitation mix
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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HEADLINE: Our storm system that brought rain to our region will push away tonight. Rainfall totals of the area where not quite as heavy as expected. I believe the strong thunderstorm complex to our south robbed us of some moisture. But - that is okay. We did not need more rain - rivers have been rising and some are in flood stage.
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For the latest river flood warnings - click here.
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The next few days will be fairly calm - there will be a weak disturbance moving through the region on Friday night - moisture is lacking. An increase of clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or flurry can't be ruled out. This does not look like a big deal. At the most some areas may pick up a light dusting of precip - better chance as you travel north and east in the area.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.

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.
No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.

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. .

I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday the 1st of February - 0%

1. I don't have anything of note in the long range. A chance for rain around Wednesday and then again next weekend (long way off).
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Perhaps a longer update tomorrow :)
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.

All other states- Click Here
.

January 25th - 26th: Rain rain rain

2012-01-25T10:55:00.001-06:00

January 25th-26th - 2012
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Wednesday night: Rain with a clap of thunder possible. Check out radars to track the rain - click here.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: Rain with a clap of thunder possible - rain becoming more scattered during the afternoon. Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 47-50 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.30"-0.60" - locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.

Thursday night: Evening showers ending - cooler.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: Mostly sunny skies.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 46-52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns - watch for water on roadways.

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Watch for water on roadways - some roads are closed in the area because of river flooding.

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
.

Nothing significant has changed. Wet wet wet.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

---

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Slight chance for thunder

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Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
HEADLINE: Another wet forecast for our region - we can't seem to buy winter! A nearly snowless December and January for much of the region - we did have a couple of light events - but nothing extreme. Will February treat us the same? Check the long range outlook for the latest monthly temperature and precipitation forecast.
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Check out radars to track the rain - click here.
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Here is what the precipitation map will look like on Thursday - wet.
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Rain will continue into Thursday across our region. Rainfall totals from the entire event will likely be in the 1-2" range over much of the region. There will certainly be a few spots that will pick up a bit more than that. This is not what we need right now. Rivers and streams are in flood stage across parts of our region - for the latest flood warnings click here.
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The good news is that we are not expecting any major winter storms (that is good news for some of you who hate winter). Sorry snow fans - I keep looking for something/anything. I keep coming up empty handed.
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Here is the satellite view of the current storm system over our region - large area of clouds and moisture covering the central and southern United States.
.

Check out the regional radar map - this image was from Wednesday morning - you can see the large area of rain and thunderstorms covering not only our region but a large part of the southern United States, as well. See the squall line in Texas? That is producing some severe thunderstorm and tornado watches/warnings. That part of this system will stay to our south - I am not concerned about severe thunderstorms in our region.
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Temperatures continue to average above normal over our region - this has been the rule during December and January. The cold spells have been brief and transient in nature.
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The following maps show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures are expected to be over the next few days - mostly above normal.
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A lot of people have been asking about the solar flare that occurred a few days ago - you can learn more about the storm by clicking here.
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There have been some spectacular images from around the globe - northern lights. Here are a couple of images from the above link. I encourage you to view some of the others on their web-site. Spectacular is the word!
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No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.

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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Thursday the 26th - 0%

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

Tuesday - 0%

Wednesday the 1st of February - 0%

1. The good news is that I don't have anything dramatic or extreme to talk about in the long range outlook - several shots at precipitation over the next week or two. There were hints of a bigger storm system towards the first week of February - I will have to monitor that time frame to see if a northern and southern system can phase. This would mean a bigger precipitation event in our region. Uncertainties, though, as to whether we can bring in enough cold air for it to be produce winter precipitation. Will monitor - as always.
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A weak disturbance will pass over the area on Friday night and Saturday - this might bring a few more clouds and even a chance for a sprinkle or flurry. The atmosphere will be fairly dry, however, so I am not expecting much - nor is the NWS.
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Tuesday into Wednesday of next week may provide another opportunity at some light rain. Another shot around February 4th-6th. Appears to be a rain event - at this time.
..
Our winter of discontent is slipping through our fingers. Meteorological Spring arrives March 1st. Time keeps ticking on.
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The official February outlook has been issued by NOAA - it is indicating warmer than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for our region - at least that is what the probabilities favor at this time.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.

All other states- Click Here
.

January 24th-25th: Here comes the rain!

2012-01-24T11:38:00.002-06:00

January 24th-25th - 2012
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tuesday night: Increasing clouds with a small chance for a shower towards morning - precipitation may begin as a mix over the northern counties in the region.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Wednesday: Rain becoming likely - especially late in the morning and afternoon hours - a clap of thunder possible. Rain may begin as a mixture over our northern counties - but change to all rain fairly quickly.
Above normal temperatures.

Highs: around 53-57 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.

Wednesday night: Rain and some thunderstorms possible - severe weather is NOT anticipated.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 30s and lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"0.60" - locally heavier totals possible.
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: Rain and a few thunderstorms - heavy downpour possible early in the day.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 46-50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-1.00"

No major concerns

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No

.

No significant wild cards in this forecast!
.
.

No snow is in our short range forecast...
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The precipitation over our northern counties may start out as a mix on Wednesday but should quickly change over to rain...
.

Tweaked rainfall probabilities

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Chance for a light mix over our northern counties on Wednesday - it will then change to rain.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.

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This analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
HEADLINE: Our next rain maker is already moving into the area. High clouds have been increasing throughout the afternoon hours. This is the first sign of a change in the weather. Clouds will continue to increase tonight and rain will push into the region late on Wednesday morning and continue into Thursday evening. Rain should end by Thursday night.
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There may be a weak disturbance move through on Friday night - right now we will leave that time period dry and revisit the issue tomorrow.
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Here is what the general precipitation map looks like - the red area means thunderstorms (we ARE NOT expecting severe weather - but a rumble of thunder will certainly be possible)
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There is a chance that some of the rain may begin as a mixture of precipitation over our northern counties on Wednesday - it should quickly turn to rain. I will monitor for any changes in that part of the forecast. You can check the advisory map - here.
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Rainfall totals could be on the moderate side with this event - totals in the 0.80"-1.50" - with a good chance of heavier totals in some counties. See probabilities below...
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The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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This forecast is for Wednesday through Thursday night...

There will be a near 100% chance of 0.40-0.80" of rain falling - near certain chance - a near ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.80-1.00" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 1.00-1.20" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 1.20"-1.60" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.60-2.00" of rain falling - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.00"-2.50" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 2.50"-3.00"+ of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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Rain will come to an end on Thursday night. Friday should be dry.
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No extreme or severe weather is forecast for the near term. Some good news after our recent stormy weather.
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Speaking of extreme - January has been a warm one across the nation - where is winter? That is the question on most peoples minds. Although - many don't mind the mild weather.
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These maps show you the temperature departures from normal - MUCH of the nation has experienced a warm January.
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The scale can be found at the bottom and the right side of the map - you can see that much of the nation has been SEVERAL degrees above normal for the Month of January.
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The Paducah, KY NWS confirmed a tornado in Calloway County, Kentucky - you can read more about that tornado by clicking here
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Here is a map they produced and placed on their web-site (link above). They have also added some photographs to their site - please see the link above.
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Here is a great blog article on the Alabama tornadoes - how the media suggested there was no warning. Well - there was a warning - PLENTY of warning. The news media should strive towards accurately reporting on these events - let people know there ARE ways to receive warnings (NOAA Weather Radios).
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Here is the article - click here
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The Birmingham, Alabama NWS Office has been busy performing storm surveys over the last 2 days. .
Here is a Google Map image of all of the rotation tracks that passed through their area. Click image for real size view
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Some of their preliminary storm information can be found on their web-site - click here.
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I encourage you to check out some of the tornado damage photographs from Tim DavPhotography - click here. - Here is an example of one of his photographs. There is also quite a bit of information on James Spann's web-site (meteorologist from Alabama) - click here
.

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Major damage in Alabama from these storms - Arkansas, as well
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The Little Rock, Arkansas NWS has put this web-page up for those interested in their outbreak information.
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Here is the latest Storm Reports map from the Storm Prediction Center - storm surveys are still being conducted by the local NWS Offices - more tornadoes will likely be added to this map over the coming days. The red dots are the tornadoes.
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Local zoomed map from the Weather Observatory page - one tornado has been added in Calloway County, KY - that is not showing up on this particular map.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.

.
.
No significant snow in our forecast...

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.

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. .

.
.

I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...

Wednesday - 5% - our northern counties could experience a light mixture at the beginning of the precipitation event

Thursday - 0%

Friday - 0%

Saturday - 0%

Sunday - 0%

Monday - 0%

1. I don't have anything major to talk about in the long range part of the forecast. Several precipitation events will be possible over the coming weeks. I can't find a snowstorm to talk about. Our winter is slipping away.
.
Here are the latest official 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks - temperature and precipitation. These maps represent the probability of temperatures being above or below normal and precipitation being above or below normal.
.
See the time stamps at the top of each map
.

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.

All other states- Click Here
.