Monday night and Tuesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Rest of this afternoon - mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few of the storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain and lightning - also possible. It will be warm with temperatures into the 80s in areas without rain - mostly 70s elsewhere. Radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
Rest of this afternoon - mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible. A few of the storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Heavy rain and lightning - also possible. It will be warm with temperatures into the 80s in areas without rain - mostly 70s elsewhere. Radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
Monday night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy thunderstorms possible. Keep in mind that anywhere thunderstorms form that the rainfall totals could be heavier. The nature of the beast this time of the year. Radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.To view watches and warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - again, as always, locally heavier downpours are likely in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Windy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Very warm - humid - partly cloudy skies. A chance for a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 85-90 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Thunderstorms over then next 24 hours could produce locally heavy rain - lightning. Can't rule out some severe storms. Hail and gusty wind would be the primary concern.
Radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
Monitor radars if you have outdoor events. Radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: A few storms could be severe.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday night: A few storms could be severe.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Tuesday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Tuesday - No
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Monitor
Friday - Monitor
Saturday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: The unsettled weather pattern continues. Some of you are thinking "what unsettled weather pattern" - as you have not experienced much in the way of rainfall.
That is going to be the nature of this pattern - some areas pick up severe storms and heavy rain - others area do not receive much at all.
It does appear that the precipitation will be more widespread this afternoon (Monday) into this evening. Chances will continue into Tuesday. Some disagreement on the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame - I put a few thunderstorms into the forecast during that time frame. Will update if need be.
Some of the storms over the next 24 hours could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, hail, and gusty winds. The tornado threat appears low.
Rainfall amounts will vary greatly - once again - across the area.
It appears we are going to warm up - quite a bit - over the coming days. Would not be a bit surprised to see some locations hit 90 degrees between Wednesday and Sunday - warm weather will continue right on into the weekend. Humid, as well. Might feel more like summer than spring.
Sorry about that - I know some people love spring.
Here are the temperature forecasts for tonight into Wednesday - dates are at the top of each graphic.
Monday night lows first
Think those numbers are a bit high? Well - they are.
Let's take a look at the DEPARTURE maps - these maps show you how much ABOVE or BELOW normal temperatures are. Here are the maps for Tuesday and Wednesday highs - we will be ABOVE normal.
Tuesday first - then Wednesday is the second map. WARM WARM WARM!
While we are looking at anomalies - let's pull up the soil moisture maps - we are dry and we need rain. These two maps below show you how dry we are. .
HEADLINES: The unsettled weather pattern continues. Some of you are thinking "what unsettled weather pattern" - as you have not experienced much in the way of rainfall.
That is going to be the nature of this pattern - some areas pick up severe storms and heavy rain - others area do not receive much at all.
It does appear that the precipitation will be more widespread this afternoon (Monday) into this evening. Chances will continue into Tuesday. Some disagreement on the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame - I put a few thunderstorms into the forecast during that time frame. Will update if need be.
Some of the storms over the next 24 hours could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, hail, and gusty winds. The tornado threat appears low.
Rainfall amounts will vary greatly - once again - across the area.
It appears we are going to warm up - quite a bit - over the coming days. Would not be a bit surprised to see some locations hit 90 degrees between Wednesday and Sunday - warm weather will continue right on into the weekend. Humid, as well. Might feel more like summer than spring.
Sorry about that - I know some people love spring.
Here are the temperature forecasts for tonight into Wednesday - dates are at the top of each graphic.
Monday night lows first
Let's take a look at the DEPARTURE maps - these maps show you how much ABOVE or BELOW normal temperatures are. Here are the maps for Tuesday and Wednesday highs - we will be ABOVE normal.
Tuesday first - then Wednesday is the second map. WARM WARM WARM!
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Keep in mind that with this type of pattern - rainfall will vary GREATLY across the region.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Keep in mind that with this type of pattern - rainfall will vary GREATLY across the region.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 30th - May 5th
Event: Unsettled weather - warm to very warm
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather. Much above normal temperatures.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Unsettled pattern and warm into the weekend.
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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